Orekhov D. V.1, Prichina S. O.2, Shchennikova S. E.3
1 International Institute of Management LINK, (RUSSIA),
2 Russian State Social University, (RUSSIA),
3 Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, (RUSSIA)
The purpose of the research is to analyze the challenges to sustainable world development, associated with the evolution of humanity as a system, considering the interrelated processes of demographic transition, growth of knowledge and GDP dynamics. It is shown that the mathematical model of human population during demographic transition, based on the women’s choice between having many children and employment, is in good agreement with the average population projection according to the UN. It was determined that the demographic dynamics begin to deviate from a hyperbolic growth after the value of the world GDP per capita achieves (G/N)dem5070 USD per person in international dollars of 2017.An analysis of the growth over time of the amount of explicit knowledge (Z) accumulated in the largest libraries of the world showed that their dynamics are well described by the dependence Z30(N(Т–25)/N0)1.25. It is shown that the global GDP growth is proportional to the number of people and the amount of explicit knowledge: G =kN(Т–25)2.25. As a result of the existence of the maximum number of people Nmax ≈ 11 billion, the amount of human knowledge, as well as the average GDP per capita have a value limit, with Zmax = 60 million CB, Gmax = 54,500 international dollars of 2017. The transition to the specified limit values in less than a century will lead to a drastic change in the world dynamics compared to the current dynamics. These changes can cause destabilization of world relations, thus threatening with international conflicts.
Keywords: sustainable development, systematic approach, world dynamics, demographic transition, GDP, forecast, knowledge, limits of growth