1 Vukovic, B. D.1,2 & Zinurova, R. Y.3 1Finance and credit department, Faculty of Economics, People’s Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University) (RUSSIA)
2 Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts (SERBIA) 3Department for Finance, St. Petersburg School of Economics and Management, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Sankt Petersburg, (RUSSIA)
The performance of Russian Agricultural Sector under international economic restrictions is a matter of concern. In this article we analyse the impact of international economic restrictions and macroeconomic factors on the output of Russian agricultural sector. We employed ARIMAX model with the time period from 1991 to 2017, using nine economic factors as covariates and agricultural value added as a dependent variable. It was found that despite on negative impact of sanctions on special aspects of Russian economy, international economic restrictions of 2014 at the end of 2017 had a significant and positive effect on the output of Russian agricultural sector.
Keywords: agricultural sector, Russian agriculture, international economic restrictions, import substitution, time series model, ARIMAX